Tracking your bets = tracking success in Kenya’s sports betting industry
In Kenya, the key to long-term success in sports betting is to view this activity as an investment/business — as opposed to viewing it as a leisure activity/hobby. The act of tracking your bets moves you from being a “guesser” to being a “knower”. As such, you will clearly understand/see what types of leagues, teams, or markets are eating into your bankroll and which ones provide a steady flow of income. That level of clarity is the only method through which you can survive the inherent variance in sports and grow your bankroll over time (months, years) versus depleting it within one weekend.
Key performance indicators all bettors need to be monitoring
For you to have a true understanding of the overall health of your betting, you need to look well beyond your account balance. The primary indicator to use is your strike rate, which represents the number of wagers you’ve won expressed as a percentage. Even though a high strike rate does not necessarily mean profitability if you’re consistently laying low odd favorites, you’ll want to monitor your average odds as well. Your wins need to cover your Losses, and there needs to be a sufficient margin of error built into the system to protect against losing streaks.
Beyond your strike rate and average odds, you’ll want to create categories for each entry based upon the sport(s), league(s), and type(s) of market(s) (i.e. Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, etc.). Closing line value (“CLV”) is yet another advanced metric that tracks how much better or worse off you were relative to the actual odds available prior to kick-off. If you regularly outperform your CLV, then you are likely classified as a “value bettor”, and according to mathematical models, you would be expected to remain profitable even after accounting for short term results.
Tools for recording your betting history: manual v. automated
The right tool will depend upon your personal preferences regarding how often you make bets and whether you prefer to manually enter information. Many professionals continue to recommend the use of manual spreadsheets created using Excel or Google Sheets. Although manually entering each and every bet may seem tedious, it provides an additional layer of accountability that prevents you from acting impulsively when placing bets. Additionally, custom spreadsheets allow users to develop their own unique formulas applicable specifically to Kenyan markets and multi-bet formats that most apps cannot accommodate.
Automated tracking software and applications can greatly simplify the tracking process while also producing detailed statistical analysis without requiring users to manually input information. Most of these applications allow users to connect directly to their preferred sportsbook(s) in order to obtain historical records and produce charts illustrating their performance immediately. Because they typically require less effort than tracking manually, some users can fall into the trap of developing a “set-it-and-forget-it” mindset that causes them to ignore why they are losing.
Calculating your yield & ROI
If you wish to understand how efficiently you are using your capital and ultimately help facilitate growth, calculating both your yield and return on investment (ROI) is essential. ROI calculates the net profit/loss based upon the original bankroll. An example would be if you had a starting bankroll of KES 10,000 and now had KES 12,000, then your ROI would be 20%. ROI provides an easy-to-understand measure of how much your “investment” grew during a particular time frame, i.e. A full football season or fiscal quarter.
Yield however is the metric that best describes how skilled a bettor is. Yield is defined as total profit divided by total turnover (the total amount of money that has been placed). If you have wagered a total of KES 100,000 over 50 individual bets and generated a profit of KES 5000, then your yield would be 5%. For professional bettors who are continually generating yields in excess of 5%, and up to 10%, this demonstrates that they are able to make smart decisions with every shilling they choose to invest in their next wager.
To begin with, managing your bankroll will connect well with developing a staking plan. A staking plan relies heavily upon tracking betting activity. The lack of any sort of data means the bettor has probably been flat betting (the same stake for each bet) or worse yet, increasing the size of their wagers to try to recoup lost funds. In this manner, a record of each bet will allow you to determine whether your confidence level corresponds with your win rate. For example, if the max bet is winning at a greater frequency than the small bet, then you have created an opportunity to use a more aggressive betting strategy (like Kelly Criterion).
Developing a proper staking plan (i.e., one which limits risk by limiting your wager to less than 1-3 percent of your overall bankroll), prevents losing streaks from wiping you out. Your record keeping sheet should also contain a column for “Percentage of Bankroll Wagered.”
Seeing the “Red” and the “Green”
When you track your bets in a color-coded spreadsheet, you’ll see your “Wins” as “green” and your “losses” as “red”. As a result, there is an obvious psychological impact when you see the record of how much green vs. how much red you’ve had over time. A prolonged string of red is a signal that your current approach to betting is flawed. However, this pain is ultimately positive in that it will discourage those impulse chase-bets that so many punters experience immediately following a loss.
On the other hand, a steadily increasing number of green profits on your graph helps build a quiet, consistent self-confidence. Your data confirms that you have some type of “system” working; thus, even though you will occasionally lose money on a bet, you know that those losses are simply part of the normal course of business – and therefore not cause to panic. It is this type of mental stability that enables experienced professional bettors to remain calm and unflappable during periods of downswings.
Common tracking errors that destroy your data:
The most common error made is Inconsistency in entry. Some punters enjoy tracking their wins enthusiastically; however, they consistently forget to enter their losses – especially after a disappointing weekend. Cherry picking data by excluding certain entries (especially losses) destroys the usefulness of all tracking efforts. Therefore, to accurately report Return on Investment (“ROI”) and yield figures, every dollar and/or cent must be documented — including bonuses and free bets.
Additionally, many punters do not provide sufficient detail when documenting each bet. Recording only “win” or “lose” does not suffice. If you do not document the odds used, the name of the sportsbook used, and the particular market(s) selected for each bet, you will be unable to perform leak analysis previously described. Furthermore, many punters fail to take into consideration “taxes paid on betting” when creating their records. For instance, in Kenya where 20% withholding taxes are deducted from all winnings, you must create your net profit records (i.e., your actual M-Pesa receipt) instead of reporting gross profit amounts based on your original bet slip for an accurate representation of your financial position.
Using M-Pesa statements to review/audit your spending on betting
Your M-Pesa statement is essentially the ultimate auditor. Since nearly all local betting transactions are conducted via mobile money — i.e., via M-Pesa — requesting a monthly statement from M-Pesa in either PDF or Excel format allows you to document your deposit/withdrawal activities in an irrefutable manner. Filtering your statement using PayBill numbers (e.g., SportPesa, 1xBet, Mozzartbet) related to large bookmakers permits you to observe the total net flows of your betting activity.
This audit is a great wake-up call. Many punters are astonished to learn that although they may remember having won KES 5000 three separate times, their M-Pesa statements show that KES 20000 was deposited into their accounts for the month. Utilizing these statements in conjunction with reviewing your manual tracking sheets ensure that you did not leave out any “impulsive” deposits in your calculations.
Frequently asked Questions
Do I really need to track M-Pesa transaction fees with my betting history?
Yes, if you are going to be profitable in the long run, you will want to keep all expenses, including transaction fees as part of your true profit margin. All transaction fees may seem insignificant but they add up after hundreds of bets. The reason you want to track each deposit/withdrawal made through M-Pesa is so when you’re calculating your “Yield” that number isn’t artificially inflated.
How often should I audit my betting data vs. M-Pesa statement history?
You should perform an audit once per month. In doing this you’ll be able to see if there were any impulse deposits, or perhaps entries in your daily log that did not show up in your M-Pesa account. By performing a regular reconciliation you’ll be keeping yourself financially honest and help identify spending patterns from months prior before they affect your primary bankroll.
Also read: Responsible gambling
I’m Kanyi Muturi and am from Tabuga, a small village in Nakuru. I have been following all sports since I was a kid and have been interested in the gambling side of sports since I was in high school. It took me a little while to get a grasp on all of the different gambling terminology and understand how confusing and complicated it can all seem when you first start.
Are you a professional gambler?
I am a successful gambler. But make no mistake about it: I’m a long-time recreational sports bettor. I’m not a professional gambler. I’m not claiming to be a professional gambler. I’ve never, to my recollection, even been acquainted with a professional gambler. And far be it from me to make the preposterous claim that following my advice will turn you into a professional gambler. It ain’t about that. Not here it ain’t. I just want to teach you a new form of recreation, a fun new pastime in what can sometimes be an unfun life.
