TopBets Kenya Betting Tips

What can you expect from topbets betting tips?

Betting tips is the most popular section of our site and we will share vetted picks. Topbets is home to betting tips, sportsbook reviews and sports news. Our experts follow all major soccer legaues so that you don’t have to spend hours looking into past statistics. We understand that you’re looking to build your bankroll. Finding the perfect bet is somehow similar to how soccer coaches develop game plans and strategies – it takes time. What do we define as the “best pick”? We look beyond the spread (odds). Are there injuries? Would the coach do anything to win this game or are they already qualified? Learning to read spreads is a skill developed over years of winning, and at times losing. The goal of this section is to help you fast track your betting career.

What are our betting tips 1×2 about?

The best part of our free betting tips is that they’re indeed free. The internet isn’t short of fixed match sellers touting “guaranteed sure bets”. They’ll comment with pseudo accounts praising these “kings” for their insider picks. They’ll lure you with emojis and they choreographed flashy lifestyles. Stay woke my friends.

1x2 betting tips

We believe in math. We use the same statistical models used in the stock market to find profitable wagering opportunities (offering value). Again, bookies stay in business because the public sways one way. Haven’t you noticed that odds in markets favouring the favourites usually go down with time? Stake on favourites early and late on the underdogs. Sports can be unpredictable. In fact, the human element is usually the hardest aspect to evaluate in mathematical models.

We’ll share sports tips that you may find beneficial; like players playing against former teams or managers, when players have to travel for games, is the team at the bottom of the league?

PRO TIP: This usually means that they’ll fight tooth and nail to win the game lest they end up in the relegation league. Have their biggest players been suspended? Are they resenting a new coach? Is this game being played after the league has advanced and they’re almost grabbing the cup (for tournaments) or the top position in leagues?

For which sports and leagues do we offer today’s betting tips?

We’re soccer addicts here at Topbets. Soccer is the most followed sport in Kenya; no doubt. It has more markets than any other sport. Soccer games are in-play almost 24/7 and this is important. We have a soft spot for live betting as you can stake multiple times on the same game. If well-timed. In-play spreads (odds) will usually be higher than for upcoming games. This is common in the Both teams to score (GG) and goal spread (OV/UN) markets.

BTTS on the Sevilla Vs Inter Game (Europa league final) had 1.82 odds at Odibets.

Odibets Europe league final odds example

This will certainly be higher 10 minutes into the game (2.05+), with no considerable change in risk. When you notice that there’s no value in betting for favourites, wait for the game to start and bet in-play. This is especially useful with the 20% tax rule in place.

There are multiple soccer leagues in almost all countries. We only give tips on the major ones. This is advantageous.

  • All the popular games are aired on cable (DStv’s supersport)
  • Bookies usually have more markets for them
  • Some bookies like Sportybet, Betlion and BigPesa have boosted odds on these games
  • Extensive live score coverage (Through Flash score, Goal, Sofa score etc)

All these things make it easier for us to research them for you. Quality picks are found after careful research. Again, all the popular games are covered by all bookmarkers, you get to bet with your favourite bookie instead of wagering with one you’re not familiar with. The only challenge with wagering on popular games is that odds drop as more people vote on favourites. You can get around this by committing early or betting in-play, as we said.

Occasionally, we’ll share Basketball and Tennis picks. Some betting tips may be too good not to share.

Odds Comparison for football betting tips

We compared odds across all the top Kenyan Bookies by looking at the Europa League final game 2020 and here’s what we found out.

 1x2Payout (Less Bookie’s Vig)
dafabet3.453.42.2697.4
kwikbet3.453.352.2396.3
ChezaCash3.42.782.1287.4
betway3.363.312.2295
mcheza3.273.262.2393.9
betika3.53.42.398.5
powerbets3.263.212.1792.1
helabet3.463.342.32598.1
mozzartbet3.13.252.3594.4
22bet3.343.222.2594.6
sportybet3.473.412.2296.8
betlion3.33.252.2594.5
  • Betika had the highest (absolute) odds on the favourites winning
  • ChezaCash had the lowest odds Overall. Elitebet used to have the lowest odds and it looks like ChezaCash have taken its position
  • None of the bookies that claim to have boosted odds have the highest odds.
  • Betika has the highest payout
  • ChezaCash has the lowest payout

Bonus: What a bookmarker’s margin/vig /juice is and how they’re guaranteed profit

Let us look at the odds in this basketball game

Basketball game odds exam[le

The spread in the odd/even (incl. overtime) market suggests that there’s an equal chance of the total number of points in this game being odd or even.

If you waged Kes 100 on both options, you would spend

Kes 100 *2 = Kes 200

But you would only win Kes 185 in either outcome. The bookie will collect kes 200 and will only pay out Kes 185. This Kes 15 difference is known as the Vig (or vigorish). Bookies have this to their advantage. They don’t actually want to bet against you as they will be risking too. They hope that there will be the same number of people betting on either side. It’s a little more complicated than this but you get the idea. Odds usually change in a bid to “lure” players to the other side. This explains why you see favourites getting lower odds with time (notice the little red down arrow, you will come to appreciate it)

Betway odds example

We compared this vig across multiple bookies and that’s what the Pay-out column stands for.

Betting calculator

All Kenyan bookies use the decimal odd format (1.85) and it’s the same format our calculator uses. A betting calculator shows you how much money you will win based on the odds and the amount of money you stake. All betting calculators (including ones used by bookies) work by multiplying the total odds by the stake to determine the possible win.

You can use our betting calculator when placing single bets or multibets. Multibets have potentially higher returns but all your picks have to be correct. Some bookies like Betlion give back stake when you miss by one pick in multibets with more than 5 games but this is the exception and not the norm. Odds are numbers indicating how likely an event is bound to happen. Higher odds are usually riskier but they yield higher too. Bookies calculate this through complex algorithms that involve the team’s state, past games, probabilities and then add their vig.

Our betting calculator automatically shows you how much money you will get after the 20% tax has been deducted. Key in your stake and odds for the game. If it’s a multibet, click the “add more games” button. Click the “reset” button to try out another stake/odds combo.

Stake Kes
Game 1 odds
Add more games

Total odds
Possible win Kes
Win after 20% withholding tax Kes
Clear

Analysis of the statistics

From experience, I have noticed that past events carry the most weight in Basketball. In fact, this is what my betting strategy is based on. You'll need an app/website that gives you access to past events. Flashscore is my favorite as they show what odds the game had at that time. You can star favorite leagues too and its easier following them this way.

This strategy doesn't work for NBA/NCAA games though. The bookies have outsmarted us here. It's best suited for smaller European/Asian men leagues.

I'm an optimist and I love the under/over market. Basketball games in in the Philippines games are usually longer than European ones (12 minutes per quarter instead of 10, just like in the USA)

Let us look at this game. OV 204.5 had 1.80 odds. Notice the little red arrow indicating that many people were putting their money here. There's wisdom in following the crowd.

betway odds example 2.0

Looking at their last head to head games

Last head to head games

7 out of 8 had ended in OV 204.5 points. Where would you put your money? The game ended at 220 points.

FlashScore head 2 head games

Stats don't lie in Basketball.

Pro Betting Tips

  • Women Basketball games usually have fewer points (UN) and I never touch them
  • African Basketball games usually have fewer points too
  • The first half usually has more points than the second. I put my money on the first half Over market (1H OV market)
  • I've noticed that almost all basketball games have one low scoring quarter and three high scoring ones. In this game, it was the 4th.
Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors

If you've had 3 OV quarters, the 4th one will be an UN; trust me. Use this to your advantage when live betting. If the first quarter was OV, the second UN; the third and fourth will both be OVs. The quarter totals (1Q OV) is my second favorite market

4th quarter totals

Stay away from the Home/away OV/UN markets. A point is a point, don't over complicate things. You're here for the money and you don't care who's winning.

Live scores and lives streams

Due to legal reasons, we can’t link to sites where you can stream games for free as almost all of them promote piracy

And they are riddled with morally-questionable ads – HOT *** in your area want to you know what 😉

 There are sites that aggregate all streaming sites. Look around and you'll find them. You can legally stream games legally through all the leading bookies however. You're required to create an account but you don't need to have funds to stream games for free, the legal way.

Sportybet livestream
Sportybet livestream

Is sportybet a good bookie?

Betway livestream
Betway livestream

Is Betway a good bookie?

Betika livestream
Betika livestream

Is Betika a good bookie?

Players with active DStv and StarTime subscriptions can stream sports for free by downloading the respective apps.

LiveScores

Flashcore is my favourite livescore app/website as it shows live odds. Sofa Score usually has live scores for events not available anywhere else. Goal! Has a match tracker (like the one you would find in sports betting sites)

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